A Word from Eric Miller

A Word from Eric Miller for January, 2005

Looking Ahead 25 Years

Worried about suburban sprawl? According to a new Brookings Institution Report, about half the homes, office buildings, stores, and factories that will be needed by 2030 don't exist today.

If you are one of those worried about the burst of a big bubble in the real estate market, well, let that ease your fears--at least in the long-term.

If you are one of those worried about the environment and suburban sprawl...be worried, be very worried.

Just today in the Pittsburgh business news headlines I receive daily in my email inbox, the first headline concerns lagging occupancy rates in downtown office high-rises. If you think the reason is high parking fees or a general lack of parking, think again. The reason given was instead lack of access to the airport.

I couldn't agree more, and may I point to great missed opportunities for connecting the airport via light rail, instead of building an airport busway that doesn't even go to the airport.

Other reports show Pittsburgh as one of the fastest sprawling regions, despite our stagnant or even shrinking population. This points to the need to develop fixed-transit even in regions that aren't growing, since even when a region is not growing in population, it's changing. Fixed-transit can influence that change in positive ways, minimizing sprawl.

This morning's article mentioned the Parkway West as the area's primary new office location. Imagine if this area were served by light-rail: then the new office buildings could be built in more downtown-like clusters rather than the sprawling manner in which they are growing.

It's probably not possible to steer all the new office development downtown. In some ways the weak downtown office market will benefit the city in the long-term because that phenomenon has allowed for much needed new housing construction in the center-city. The need for new fixed-transit systems is critical, however, both to preserve the attractiveness of the region and influence its efficiency. They are not needed only downtown, but also to connect airports, train stations, and office complexes throughout the region. We must stop looking only at the construction and operation cost of a motor-bus system vs the cost of fixed-rail, and look at the costs and benefits of having a dense, efficient peoplescape or a sprawling, inefficient scattering of population over many counties.

If indeed only half of the buildings we will need by 2030 exist today, that is an opportunity that we haven't had probably since after the Second World War. It will be a lost opportunity if we don't seek to put in the transportation framework needed to guide the construction and placement of these buildings in a manner beneficial to both efficient movement and a convenient, timesaving, lifesaving lifestyle.

Last Year's Wishes

Here's a look back at my wish list for 2004, and a brief look to 2005.

I wished for:

A new drugstore in my neighborhood
The reclaiming of the New York Skyline and the construction of the world's tallest building in New York. See slideshow.
Light rail to the North Shore.
The redevelopment of the Garden Theater and the Federal North Corridor.
An end to the idea that a modern urban neighborhood must be made up primarily of single-family houses with retail isolated in certain places.
Everyday stores included in downtown Pittsburgh's redevelopment.
Passenger rail operated by railroads.

I got:

The same drug store, but a new bakery added to my business district.
Looks like the World's Tallest building will be built in New York.
Light-rail to North Shore is still on the drawing board, though funding for public transit in this state is unreliable at best and future North Shore development still teeters.
As my lawyer friend says, after George Bush kills us all in a nuclear war, there will be two things left on earth, cockroaches and the Garden Theater.
I sense an emerging acceptance of more retail businesses mixed in with single-family homes.
Two of the high-end clothing stores have closed, but no new developments for other retail have been announced. Such a store is needed, however for downtown housing to be sustainable.

Amtrak still operates on a shoestring with funding that must be re-appropriated annually.