Jan Lundberg (himself a former oil industry analyst, now radical conservationist) reports on his meeting with Energy Investment specialist Matt Simmons during a Pentagon -sponsored energy conference:

Matt Simmons is a man who has reflected on the waste of energy that ordinarily would be delightful for any businessman in energy. But he wryly complains of "blueberries in Maine imported from Chile even during blueberry season." Likewise for the nation’s infrastructure: "You can tear up the roads," he said, to stop the wasteful trucking and start barging on water, to save 35 times as much energy. He mentions rail also as a major replacement for our highways, as freight by rail saves 8 times the energy. He would know, however, that today’s volume of trade cannot fit on existing railcars and barges, and that there’s little likelihood that the nation’s infrastructure can change quickly enough for the peak oil timetable.

And when is peak? "Realistically, we’re probably at peak now...."

To read the entire article, go to Culture Change Magazine.

Richard Risemberg on 06.25.06 @ 09:44 PM PST [link]  

"I don't know why people here thought no one wanted to live downtown. Even Memphis, which was completely run down, now has 10,000 residents. Here, the city is nice, the job market is strong, the night life is good, but because there was no supply, people assumed there was no demand. Clearly, that's not true." Ashlyn Hines speaking of Nashville. Creating Demand for City Living in Nashville

Eric Miller on 06.24.06 @ 06:37 PM PST [link]  

There is sufficient evidence from tree rings, boreholes, retreating glaciers, and other "proxies" of past surface temperatures to say with a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years, according to a new report from the National Research Council. Less confidence can be placed in proxy-based reconstructions of surface temperatures for A.D. 900 to 1600, said the committee that wrote the report, although the available proxy evidence does indicate that many locations were warmer during the past 25 years than during any other 25-year period since 900. Very little confidence can be placed in statements about average global surface temperatures prior to A.D. 900 because the proxy data for that time frame are sparse, the committee added.

Scientists rely on proxies to reconstruct paleoclimatic surface temperatures because geographically widespread records of temperatures measured with instruments date back only about 150 years. Other proxies include corals, ocean and lake sediments, ice cores, cave deposits, and documentary sources, such as historic drawings of glaciers. The globally averaged warming of about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius) that instruments have recorded during the last century is also reflected in proxy data for that time period, the committee noted.

The report was requested by Congress after a controversy arose last year over surface temperature reconstructions published by climatologist Michael Mann and his colleagues in the late 1990s. The researchers concluded that the warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the last decades of the 20th century was unprecedented in the past thousand years. In particular, they concluded that the 1990s were the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year. Their graph depicting a rise in temperatures at the end of a long era became known as the "hockey stick."

The Research Council committee found the Mann team's conclusion that warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last thousand years to be plausible, but it had less confidence that the warming was unprecedented prior to 1600; fewer proxies -- in fewer locations -- provide temperatures for periods before then. Because of larger uncertainties in temperature reconstructions for decades and individual years, and because not all proxies record temperatures for such short timescales, even less confidence can be placed in the Mann team's conclusions about the 1990s, and 1998 in particular.

The committee noted that scientists' reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures for the past thousand years are generally consistent. The reconstructions show relatively warm conditions centered around the year 1000, and a relatively cold period, or "Little Ice Age," from roughly 1500 to 1850. The exact timing of warm episodes in the medieval period may have varied by region, and the magnitude and geographical extent of the warmth is uncertain, the committee said. None of the reconstructions indicates that temperatures were warmer during medieval times than during the past few decades, the committee added.

The scarcity of precisely dated proxy evidence for temperatures before 1600, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, is the main reason there is less confidence in global reconstructions dating back further than that. Other factors that limit confidence include the short length of the instrumental record, which is used to calibrate and validate reconstructions, and the possibility that the relationship between proxy data and local surface temperatures may have varied over time. It also is difficult to estimate a mean global temperature using data from a limited number of sites. On the other hand, confidence in large-scale reconstructions is boosted by the fact that the proxies on which they are based generally exhibit strong correlations with local environmental conditions. Confidence increases further when multiple independent lines of evidence point to the same general phenomenon, such as the Little Ice Age.

Collecting additional proxy data, especially for years before 1600 and for areas where the current data are relatively sparse, would increase our understanding of temperature variations over the last 2,000 years, the report says. In addition, improving access to data on which published temperature reconstructions are based would boost confidence in the results. The report also notes that new analytical methods, or more careful use of existing methods, might help circumvent some of the current limitations associated with large-scale reconstructions.

The committee pointed out that surface temperature reconstructions for periods before the Industrial Revolution -- when levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases were much lower -- are only one of multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion that current warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence.

The National Research Council is the principal operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. It is a private, nonprofit institution that provides science and technology advice under a congressional charter.

Eric Miller on 06.22.06 @ 07:28 PM PST [link]  

Elk Grove, Calif., had the nation’s fastest growth rate among large cities (100,000 or more population) between July 1, 2004, and July 1, 2005, according to new U.S. Census Bureau population estimates.

Located south of Sacramento, Elk Grove is a relatively new city, having incorporated less than six years ago. Elk Grove’s population increased 12 percent during the period, to 112,338. It was joined on the list of the 10 fastest-growing cities by three others in California: Moreno Valley (ranking sixth), Rancho Cucamonga (seventh) and Irvine (10th). These three cities are each located in southern California.

Florida had three cities among the fastest growing: Port St. Lucie (third), Cape Coral (fifth) and Miramar (eighth). Two cities in Arizona were in the top 10 — Gilbert (fourth) and Chandler (eighth) — and, relatively nearby, North Las Vegas, Nev., was second.

Phoenix had the largest population increase of any city between 2004 and 2005. San Antonio; Fort Worth, Texas; North Las Vegas, Nev.; and Gilbert, Ariz., rounded out the list of the five biggest numerical gainers.

New York City continued to be the nation’s most populous city, with 8.1 million residents in 2005. This was more than twice the population of Los Angeles, which ranked second at 3.8 million. The estimates show that among the 10 largest cities, one change has occurred in the rankings: San Antonio has replaced San Diego as the nation’s seventh most populous city.

In addition to the estimates for the nation’s 19,471 incorporated places, the Census Bureau also released estimates for the nation’s general purpose minor civil divisions — those that have functioning governments. Incorporated places include cities, towns, villages and boroughs in most states.

Eric Miller on 06.21.06 @ 05:54 AM PST [link]  

Someowne needs to get James Howard Kunsler and Al Gore into a room to figure out what happens to global warming when the oil runs out.

Anyway, Gore's movie An Inconvenient Truth finally arrived at the Manor Theater in Squirrel Hill yesterday. At the 5:30 p.m. showing there were only a handful in the audience. A little too much about Al Gore, but otherwise a good production.

It would seem the Sierra Club, which had a table in the lobby, was pretty busy afterward.

Eric Miller on 06.17.06 @ 01:00 PM PST [link]  

Two-thirds of highly mobile 25- to 34-year-olds with college degrees say that they will decide where they live first, then look for a job, according to a new survey commissioned by CEOs for Cities and conducted by The Segmentation Company, a division of marketing consultancy Yankelovich Inc.

The survey follows the December 2005 report by CEOs for Cities titled The Young and Restless in a Knowledge Economy, which warned urban leaders to attract and retain college-educated workers to compete in the knowledge economy. A city’s best chance to attract these workers, the report said, is to focus on the most mobile of the group, those 25 to 34 years old.

The survey marks the first time that the preferences of this highly coveted group have been quantified. The results are based on online surveys of 1,000 25- to 34-year-old college-educated men and women from diverse backgrounds and geographic locations conducted March 3-11, 2006.

Key findings included:

• Two-thirds of college-educated 25 to 34 year-olds choose place before job, and this preference was true across all life stages and genders (male, female, single, married, with children, without children).

• Women place greater emphasis on the location decision than do men, although a majority of men also say they choose place before job.

• Basic quality of life issues (clean and attractive, can live the life I want to lead, safe streets and neighborhoods, can afford to buy a home, lots of parks and green space) ranked highest among attributes that young people looked for in a city.

• A place that feels welcoming, offers professional opportunities, has reasonable commute times, access to excellent schools, is a great place to raise children, is a place people are proud to say they live in were among attributes young people looked for in a city.

• Lifestyle attributes are also important to this demographic. They prefer places where they can connect with others and have meaningful social interactions; that are interesting and diverse; and are environmentally responsible.

• Young adults have a strong inclination to live downtown or close to downtown.

• Knowledge of city attributes is limited. When asked where they would like to live, respondents were quick to answer. But when asked why, their reasons were vague.

• Young adults rely most heavily on personal stories from friends and family to form their perceptions about a place. They also use the Internet and personal visits to shape their opinions.

Opportunities for urban leaders to attract and retain this desirable demographic include:

• Take care of the basics – Make sure your city is clean, green, safe and inviting. The basic functions of government such as trash collection and keeping parks maintained and litter off the streets will go a long way to bringing and keeping people. While it is not the only factor, a city that doesn’t take care of the basics will likely be dismissed or overlooked by this demographic.

• Make it easy for young people to reach their aspirations and goals – Young people are the most entrepreneurial in America, so foster their want for personal and professional success by, for instance, naming a talent czar who guides entrepreneurs through the process of starting a new business in the city. The aura of opportunity is very powerful.

• Highlight your downtown and close-in neighborhoods – Young people are 30 percent more likely than other Americans to live within three miles of a city’s center. This percentage has been increasing since 1980 (and dramatically since 1990) in each of the top 50 metro areas in the U.S.

• Develop a compelling narrative about your city. Because young people have only vague notions of what a city is like, this poses an opportunity for a city to define and brand itself and market that image to young people. But don’t promise something that can’t be delivered. And don’t settle for a tagline, logo or slogan to do the job.

• Work with local stakeholders to build a dynamic web presence that is appealing to tech and design-savvy young people and that accurately portrays your city’s narrative.

Eric Miller on 06.13.06 @ 09:12 AM PST [link]  

The Bicycle Film Festival just finished an exuberant run in NYC and is moving on to the following cities this summer: Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Chicago, London, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, and Milano. With its emphasis on urban cycling and messenger culture, it is the perfect film festival for the progressive city dweller and New Colonist reader!

Full information is currently available on their website for the Los Angeles venues (which include valet bicycle parking), and will be coming soon for the other cities noted.

See their homepage for reviews, film and art show listings, and more:

Richard Risemberg on 06.13.06 @ 06:24 AM PST [link]  

...One day, while I was walking to my office, a beggar gave me a friendly greeting, as if he knew me, as if we were equals, and after I turned into the office, joined his companion and resumed begging. Why is it so touching to be greeted like a friend by a beggar, rather than being asked for money? Because just as I would like to do for him, so he did for me: he asserted my humanity rather than classifying me as an object.....

Debra Efroymson write from Dhaka about how mixing with the poor and proud alike on that city's teeming streets has given her hope for humanity.

Read more in this latest addition to the New Colonist archives in:

Street Life: Our Only Hope for a Vanishing Civility?

Richard Risemberg on 06.10.06 @ 02:21 PM PST [link]  

Twenty years ago, Los Angeles used eminent domain to take over a vacant plot with the intention of putting a trash incinerator there. Local opposition quashed that idea, but the plot lay idle and became, almost inevitably, an impromptu dumping ground. After the Rodney King riots, teh city allowed the L.A. Regional Food Bank to establish a community garden there, which flourished spectacularly, feeding both stomachs and souls and becoming an integral part of its poverty-stricken neighborhood.

Then the city, in a fit of short-term thinking, sold the land back to the original developer for little more than it had paid him after the eminent domain proceedings years before. The garden's farmers approached the developer to buy it back, but suddenly the price had risen steeply, as public improvements had made the area more desireable for private commerce.

So a garden that alleviates poverty, improves public health, and supports neighborhood stability in an otherwise fragile and dangerous area, may become another cinderblock warehouse.

But maybe not. Read the whole story in Grist.

Richard Risemberg on 06.10.06 @ 08:45 AM PST [link]  

A new study found that Washington, not New York or San Francisco, was the wealthiest city in the U.S. More interesting however are the cities listed as tops for employment growth. Washington is also tops along with Miami, Atlanta and Dallas. I suspect these are not the top cities for population growth (although they may be close)--and none are on the West Coast or Desert Southwest, unless you count Dallas.

link to article

Eric Miller on 06.08.06 @ 05:07 AM PST [link]  

"Britain Embraces the Bicycle!," says the headline, complete with exclamation point, then the article goes on to give a good overview of the grassroots rediscovery of the bicycle as a vital--perhaps the most vital--part of the urban transport mix. A few quotes:

"Cycling is a quick, healthy and convenient way of getting around London. But it is also the case that the Tube network is reaching capacity and we can only put so many buses on roads that are already extremely busy so the future lies in cycling."

"I love it because it gives me the vigour of someone 10 years younger, and according to one study I read about, it should give me an active life expectancy 15 years longer than someone who doesn't cycle regularly. We're a slightly anarchic lot, us cyclists, and love the freedom granted by a bike in that you don't have to worry about congestion or bus times or your impact on climate change."

"I'm really glad I took up cycling again because it's really convenient. Whereas it would take me 20 minutes to walk to the shops from where I live, and while it would be expensive to hop on the bus, instead I can cycle there in just a few minutes."

To read the entire article, visit The Independent

Richard Risemberg on 06.07.06 @ 09:36 PM PST [link]  

Someone once said, "A crowded street or square can be clean in seconds." It's true, of course: a thousand hands, a thousand bits of trash. I've tried to make the sentiment more concrete, and for a year or two now I've endeavored to pick up one piece of public trash per day. Nothing really disgusting or juicy (since I don't walk around with a broom and pan), but ordinary trash: newspapers, concert flyers, styro cups, fast-food boxes, the usual detritus of our never-look-back convenience cult.

It may not make a big difference, but it makes a difference. And I've seen people imitate me when I've done it, right on the spot. Especially if, in a fit of ambition, I pick up two or three bits of trash. And so it makes a little bigger difference--especially if they keep up the practice.

Total investment in time: about 40 seconds per day to pick up two or three bits of trash and carry them to the nearest trash can, be it public or private.

Try it yourself. Maybe the practice will spread. Maybe even some of the folks who pitch the damn trash in our common space will notice and be a tad less sloppy the next day.

It's something you can do in real life, without tools, without bureaucracy, without much bother. And you'll see the difference instantly.

Richard Risemberg on 06.01.06 @ 06:47 AM PST [link]