by Chip Haynes
No, I'm not going anywhere, and neither are you. What's about to go away is our cherished American Lifestyle, and the reason can be found in one short word: Oil. The world's supply of oil is starting to tighten up, and over the next few years that will start to have a big impact on how we live our lives right here in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Big changes are coming--very big changes, indeed.
There's no one you can blame for this, it's just a plain fact of life: There was only so much oil in the world to begin with, and we've used up about half of it- the really easy half. It's not a communist plot or an act of terrorism, just a good old-fashioned economics: The more there is of anything, the less it's worth. (Hence the phrase, "Dirt cheap".) As the supply dries up, the price goes up. (Hence also the phrase, "Worth its weight in gold".) And we're facing that scarcity and corresponding price rise right now with oil.
Now before you think all I'm talking about is the price of gasoline, maybe you'd better think again: virtually everything in our lives, and I do mean everything, is in some way touched by oil. I don't think you can name one thing that isn't. Transportation is, certainly, but so is food, clothing, housing, employment, education, recreation. You name it, oil's in there somewhere, everywhere, helping out. And when that oil starts to get rare and expensive, everything down the line starts to get rare and expensive. Every thing you buy, and everything you do, is about to go up in price.
How soon? Many experts have predicted the peak of global oil production will be reached long before 2010. If that sounds like a long way off (I'm writing this in early 2002), it is not. The peak may come as early as 2005, if it hasn't happened already. Because so many countries keep such a tight control on their own oil production information, the peak may even pass without us knowing about it right away. (Did you know that U.S. oil production in the lower 48 states peaked way back in 1970?) As time goes by, however, the passing of the global production peak will certainly be noticed by all of us. It will show up as a dwindling oil supply, fewer consumer choices and a higher price for just about everything in America.
This is going to change your life--a lot. We Americans account for only 5% of the world's population, but we use about 25% of the oil. We are really going to feel this one, folks. Whether for better or for worse, life as we know it in America is about to be changed forever.
What can you do? Nothing. Nothing you can do will change the inevitable: as we use more oil, there is less oil to use.
It took millions of years for oil to form in the earth, and we'll have used most of it up in only a hundred. C'est la vie. You can, however, prepare for it--at least a little bit on a personal level. To minimize the impact of this impending oil shortage on your life, you need to minimize the importance of oil in your life. That could mean something as simple as changing the light bulbs in your house to lower your power bill--or something else as daunting as buying a new house to be closer to work. (And then changing the light bulbs there.) Look at every aspect of your life, and find out how less oil might affect it. By reducing your energy footprint on the planet, you'll do yourself a favor in the short run and help everyone else in the long run.
Find out about how much of your life is connected to oil. Know where the power that you use every day comes from, and learn how you can get by with less. (The electricity that powers our house comes from an oil-fired power plant. Lucky us.) Understand how much oil is used to make the things you eat and own, because very soon you may have to make do with less of everything. It's not just about your driving--it's about your whole life. Virtually everything you do is connected to oil, and the world is going to have less oil to play with in just a few short years. Will you be ready?
Our days of endless wide highways and shimmering urban vistas are about to change. The future will be smaller than the past, and that's a first for us Americans. We have built a great country based on Bigger! Faster! More! Now we're facing a future of smaller, slower and less. That doesn't make it a bad future, just different. (Considerably different from what we were expecting.) Our lives will have to stress quality instead of quantity--and that's not such a bad thing! The sooner we all understand this, acknowledge this, and begin to prepare for it, the better off we will all be. Now is the time to understand how your life is powered by oil and natural gas (they're headed out the door together)--and now is the time to start looking for a viable Plan B. That oil-powered clock is ticking--and most definitely winding down. This would be a real good time to trade in that big gas-guzzler for a really fuel-efficient small car…and maybe double check your retirement fund for oil-dependent stocks. (Hint: They all are.) If you plan to be around for a while, you'd better start planning now as to how.
The oddly un-American aspect of this impending permanent oil shortage is that we've seen so very little about it in the mainstream American press and media. Not even in the National Enquirer. Not even on Fox. Has David Letterman ever mentioned it? I thought not. There's been no "Top Ten Things To Do When The Oil Runs Out" list. Of course, all of this oddly quiet ignorance will probably change to a spit-spewing national scream virtually overnight once that global peak becomes an admitted public reality and the media gets a hold of it. (There are, it seems, no minor crises in America.) In spite of the understanding that the downside of oil production will mirror its upside development, once the American media gets a firm grip on this one, you can expect a gas panic the likes of which this country hasn't seen for 30 years. Only this time it will be worse--because this time it will be for keeps. Gas lines. Remember gas lines? What fun all over again…and this time forever.
This time, however, instead of us being the not-so-innocent victims of an Arab oil embargo as a result of our questionable foreign policies (hey, some things never change!), it will be Mama Nature sending all her children from the Exxon dinner table with our gas tanks half empty. No amount of public posturing on the part of our government, or anyone else's, is going to help. We can't have what isn't there, and for once, we won't be able to buy our way out with money. Hope you're ready to hunker down. (Hope you live close to work!)
Read the world news, then, if you must, and study the problem all you want. It won't make a bit of difference in the long run if you know what's going on or not. Your control of the issue will be limited to only a small portion of oil's control over your own personal life. The rest of it is a crap shoot--much what life has always been. Only this time, it will be more so.
So when we pass each other out there on our bicycles, be sure to smile and wave!
